Say for the men’s 500m… you get all the track records for the different venues for the 500m. The world record is 34.03, set at Utah Olympic Oval by Jeremy Wotherspoon. You take all the other track records and subtract the world record from it. So, for example the record at Thialf is 34.81 (also by Jeremy) so the difference is 0.78, which is about 2.29% of the world record. You construct a table of percentages for all distances for all the venues that you’re interested in.

So if I have a time in Salt Lake City, I would multiply it by 1.0229 to get an estimate of what time I would get in Heerenveen. To go the other way, I would divide my Heerenveen time by 1.0229 to get my Salt Lake time. It becomes messy because you have to do a whole new set of calculations for each distance, and for each pair of venues.

There’s nothing particularly deep about this method. It’s just a bit messy and someone who’s competent at mathematics has to do the calculations because it is easy to make a mistake because there are so many steps.

Would you mind sharing with us the forumula of rink times conversion?

thanks.

I know exactly how the ISU rules work in regards to the Olympics, at least as far as they are written. I have been told that it is common for the ISU to encourage smaller countries by giving them a spot, but this is outside the “official” written rule on how Olympic spots are determined. Let’s hope that they do this for Australia.

When talking about rankings, one does not ordinarily calculate the percentage. Regardless of how useful it is as a measure of a person’s skating ability, in this case, the only thing that matters is how many people finished in front of a particular skater. (and Ben was supposed to skate in Hamar anyway). The top-40 rule is actually an Australian one, so who knows whether it will be adhered to. The 1500m is extremely competitive this year, with national records dropping like flies. To be perfectly honest, I am doubtful that either Ben or Josh can make it into the games based on times alone (Ben is 2nd or 3rd reserve at the moment… I think). Ben, however, has skated an OQT at an ISU event, while Josh has not since he hasn’t had a world cup on fast ice yet. I don’t feel it is fair to shut the door on him when it is this close.

I’m not so sure we’d be competitive in a team pursuit. Little Dan is very quick, but is also very much a “pure sprinter”. I’m not nearly quick enough yet. (is Richard Goerlitz any good at distance?). But I agree that, with backgrounds in short track and inline (i.e. not being afraid of skating in a pack) there is a lot of potential for a good team pursuit – look what the Dutch “B-team” did in Heerenveen.

I’m all for team harmony. I wished Ben luck prior to his race, and took a few good photos of him. I just have a HUGE problem with the selectors who, aside from making what I believe to be very bad decisions, give me the impression of indifference and ignorance. There’s a wider issue here aside from who’s faster than who. Finding out who’s faster is a very difficult thing to do in this case, but trying to determine who selectors will pick shouldn’t feel like rolling dice.

Ben skated 45th of 59 skaters, Josh was 40th of 42 skaters! You are the mathematician, tell me which one finished higher, percentage wise? The simple fact is, like you say, we just won’t know what Josh could’ve done, and to be honest, that perplexes me too as I want to see as many Aussies at the Olympics when I sit at home and cheer like mad for them! Josh is indeed a quality skater, but to say you ‘believe’ Josh is a better skater, is pure belief and your opinion, of course which you are entitled to. I simply can’t say who is better, and i won’t, even with ben breaking the record. But I will always support whoever gets to skate. I think they are both on an equal footing to be totally honest, and who knows what either one can do in their ‘perfect’ race.

BTW, the top 20 Olympic rankings are based on WC points ranking in each distance, the bottom 20 are based on time in world cups, not placings in any particular world cup. Ben currently (before this weekend) sits as sixth reserve, and with many skaters who were above him missing this weekend, Ben may well move into one of the 40 placings, but I won’t try and calculate this. Now, I will stand corrected on this one, but it is my belief that a country quota allocation can nominate that a country is given a position at the Olympics, and as long as an athlete has posted an OQT, then that member country can decided who fills that position, but once again, I will be prepared to be corrected on this.

Let’s start to promote team harmony, as to be honest, I would love to see the guys team up for the team pursuit, as I actually reckon we would stand half a chance in this discipline given the depth we have at the moment.

The air pressure was lower, and the ice conditions were fast, as can be expected for a world cup. All credit to Ben for breaking the national record again, but if you look at his placing, he’s 45th while Josh placed 39th or 40th at Hamar. Placing within the top 40 at a world cup is an Australian requirement for the Olympic nomination.

There are basically two criteria for getting to the Olympics. First, you have to skate within the top 40 at a world cup. Second, you have to skate an Olympic qualifying time at an ISU event (typically, a world cup). The difficulty of obtaining the ranking doesn’t vary a lot between world cups, since mostly the same people go. Obtaining the time requirement varies according to the air pressure and, as discussed in a previous post, the air pressure decreases with higher altitude. Since Ben has had three attempts at the ranking and succeeded zero times, and Josh has made one from one, perhaps he should be allowed to have a shot at the 1500m at the Salt Lake City world cup?

You see, I believe that if Josh had raced the 1500m earlier today, he would have gone faster. We’ll never know now. But the way things are going, there is a good chance that Australia won’t get a spot in the 1500m at the Olympics. The reason the top 40 ranking criteria exists is because, even if you can skate an Olympic qualifying time, you still need to skate within the top 40 times in the world (only counting the top 4 from large countries like Canada and the Netherlands because of country maximum quotas) in order to get one of the 40 spots that exists.

Josh needs his chance to skate a top 40 ranking on fast world cup ice, at a high altitude. He may not make it, but I honestly believe he has a slightly better chance than Ben does.

World Cup, Calgary – Dec 04 2009 – Ben SOUTHEE AUS 1:48.24

the answer to your question is simply – no. Based on all the information available to the selectors by their selection deadline, there is not a single sound argument for Ben being selected over Josh.

I’m going to put this very bluntly – I don’t give a fuck what the “best” way is to do this is. There is only one “right” thing to do, and that is for Josh to skate the 1500m at the Calgary world cup.

It is not up to us to find the “best” way of doing something. We forgo that luxury when a very obvious “best” team selection was ignored by a very indifferent selection committee.

I completely understand your point about AIR not wanting to reverse its decision because it would give the impression that they are easily manipulated. Of course, one should also weigh that against the impression that people might get if AIR makes a bad decision with bad consequences. What would you rather? A world where bad decisions are made, but stuck to by inflexible bureaucrats in order to save face, or a world where bad decisions are made, but subject to revision because the people in whom we place our trust have an overriding desire to do the right thing?

Late notice is also not without precedent. I know of at least one case in which a skater from the US team was informed that she would be able to race less than 48 hours prior to that race.

It’s just another case of iSnack 2.0. It was a mistake. It quickly became very obvious that it was a mistake. So they changed it. There really is no reason why that couldn’t be done here.

On the point of procedure, I have good reason to believe that it is not being followed. In fact, the selection policy states that the coach must be consulted in selection decisions and I have confirmed that she was not. From what I have heard (and I admittedly have not heard much) the selectors have barely communicated with us at all, and when they have, they have blatantly ignored anything we have had to say. I also have reason to believe that they are incapable of competently carrying out the required mathematical calculations to arrive at the correct weighted times. None of these are mortal sins – they can be corrected if the possibility for correction exists.

In fact, I would like to go on the record as saying that our selectors have been deliberately negligent and are, in any case, totally incompetent. I understand that saying such things may very well jeopardize my chances of ever representing Australia in this sport ever again, but justice is justice. The slightest shred of evidence of the intention to do the right thing may have restored my faith in them, as it did following the whole altitude vs sea-level debacle, but this is truly ludicrous.

Tomorrow, the fastest Australian EVER over 1500m will watch someone else take the starting line. Someone who they have beaten soundly in every instance where they have raced on the same day in the same venue. Someone who they have comprehensively outranked in the 1500m at world cups. I don’t doubt that Ben is an excellent skater, but Josh is a better one. Being able to judge who is a better skater is an enormously difficult task, but the opportunities have presented themselves, and the results are in. And they were ignored.

If the selectors truly want such a bad decision next to their names then I am disgusted. I have done extensive work with human rights organizations such as Amnesty International and have been routinely disgusted by the injustices of the world. These injustices were motivated by very powerful factors – obscene amounts of money and power. Here we have a chance to correct a small injustice, and we are arguing about saving face!?

If the roles were reversed, I would argue for Ben’s case just as vigorously. I will not sit quietly by while all this happens (that much should be obvious by now). I will not have that on my conscience any more than you would walk past a woman being stabbed on the street without rendering assistance. We have very short and unpredictable lives. How great a disservice would we commit to future generations if we ever let our pride stand in the way of doing the right thing? What kind of precedent is that? It is not the world I want to live in, and I do want a bar of it.

Once again, all sound arguments, but I will ask you a question: Based on how the current selection policy is written, has the correct person been selected for the 1500m this weekend? If so, and you don’t believe that this is the best selection, then as a member of the AIR, I appeal to you to come up with a better solution and have it implemented. Doing things retrospectively is never the best way, and regardless of who is/was selected, I would be very disappointed if the AIR reveresed their decision at such late notice, as I believe they have applied their policy and it could be seen as thought the AIR can be easily manipulated. Maybe a decision could be altered for Salt Lake???

I have no doubt Desly would be doing as you said, she is a passionate person and as she says, “I hate being told I can’t!”

The idea of selecting the team just days out from the world cup was always fraught with danger anyway, and once again these are the issues that arise – when skaters should be preparing for a major event, they are in the background whilst ‘mum and dad’ are disputing decisions.

I don’t miss any of your points – but the simple fact was no skater had to skate last weekend, it was not a selection trial. Had Desly requested that happen, and the AIR approved, then the results would have been taken as first across the line skates, but once again there was no obligation.

Also, I beleive that if if last season track bests were taken into consideration as opposed to track records, the time weighting may have been more in favour of Josh in the 1500m (I haven’t done the calculations so I am happy to stand corrected on this)but it would appear that any statement or idea opposed to certain people always seems to be considered ‘foolish’! My idea is that recency is compared to recency.

As you say, every time you skate, you improve by seconds and that is awesome and I hope it continues – we need about another 20 Daniel Yeows to push everyone up and make competition. Many ‘beginner’ or transitional skaters do this, as when there is a lot to improve, then big gains should be expected. I myself have had a grand total of around 5 weeks in my life on LT and the last time I skated a 1500m I skated a 2:06, but so what? That was 6 seconds off my previous best but counts for nothing, I am a young 37 years and fun is the name of MY game. As you know, time drops will lessen as you progress and become technically better. I am a realist, and I know my limitations, and that is to support all the Aussie skaters, and I mean ALL.

And you are correct, .2 of a second is a lot and it only takes .01 of a second to lose a gold medal. But once again, I am guessing the AIR applied all of the selection policy and shared the 500m as well – who knows, they are the only ones that can say.

I would like to think that everyone will support whoever gets to skate and hope that we qualify skaters for Vancouver.

Whether I agree or disagree with who was selected is not the point here, but whether in this instance the policy has been applied? Like laws that are bad, usually someone needs to be aggreived before people realise that the law is wrong, and I suggest this is the case here also.

Only through guys like yourself who are passionate and attached to the sport can we further we grow it, so keep up the discussion. I only play devil’s advocate in most instances, and like I have said, I just want to see the best from our country skate too.

Cheers
Have a good weekend at the WC